Frivandus
0x649414f611a73b2c9aa847ae51cd3d55f013c1b7
- Realised P&L
- $75.22
- Volume
- $55.0k
- Markets traded
- 177
- Open portfolio
- $67.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded177
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.235 | $47.00 | +$7.00 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.160 | $6.60 | +$2.60 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.048 | $5.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.011 | $3.44 | −$1.56 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.110 | $2.53 | −$0.47 |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $1.39 | −$6.61 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.010 | $0.99 | −$4.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.48at 0.042Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$121.28at 0.088Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$106.32at 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$55.60at 0.112Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April?
- +$55.35at 0.417Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 03:53 | Will Trump say "Made in America" or "American Made" during remarks at Steel Across America? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $7.00 |
| 09-06 07:25 | Will Trump say "Constitution" this week? | BUY | 0.289999985 | $11.00 |
| 09-05 09:20 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $1,800? | BUY | 0.0742537173 | $2.00 |
| 09-05 09:17 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.049330584 | $6.00 |
| 09-05 09:15 | Will Rick Devens be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 9)? | BUY | 0.3799999863 | $15.00 |
| 08-29 03:39 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $10.00 |
| 08-29 03:38 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0475647842 | $9.93 |
| 08-29 03:38 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Andy Burnham by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0587110558 | $10.85 |
| 08-23 12:19 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | BUY | 0.096999979 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 12:18 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? | BUY | 0.1304560526 | $3.00 |
| 08-23 12:17 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? | BUY | 0.1129411536 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 12:04 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 08-23 11:39 | Will Trump say "God" this week? | BUY | 0.1466897219 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 11:39 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week? | BUY | 0.1699999609 | $3.00 |
| 08-23 11:34 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | BUY | 0.0469999893 | $4.00 |