0x647e679f6b9975bc9bdbed8203616e219aa518ba
0x647e679f6b9975bc9bdbed8203616e219aa518ba
- Realised P&L
- $-3.04
- Volume
- $358.41
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $3.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.649 | $1.99 | +$0.99 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.450 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.135 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$7.03at 0.227Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 15:26 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:25 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3259999641 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:21 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 22:18 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 12:59 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 04:59 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 14:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 06:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 22:06 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 07:19 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 09:37 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |