dfgujfxiur
0x646a35ea194687da4db067a92303b6929b709230
- Realised P&L
- $-15.87
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $4.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.967 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? · Yes | 0.950 | 1.000 | $1.11 | +$0.06 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? · No | 0.960 | 1.000 | $1.08 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-37 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.971 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.76at 0.840Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
- +$0.35at 0.890Will Jony Ive join Meta before August?
- +$0.19at 0.840Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition
- +$0.17at 0.920Will ANO form a government after Czech election ?
- +$0.08at 0.920Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 05:25 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $169.83 |
| 06-01 05:25 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.992 | $159.83 |
| 06-01 05:25 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $89.99 |
| 05-29 09:06 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $90.00 |
| 05-29 09:05 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.993 | $160.00 |
| 05-29 09:04 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.00 |
| 04-30 05:30 | Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.991 | $109.88 |
| 04-28 06:14 | Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.992 | $110.00 |
| 04-16 04:50 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.998 | $211.79 |
| 04-16 04:50 | Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.989 | $125.87 |
| 04-16 04:49 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $99.69 |
| 04-13 09:47 | Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $126.00 |
| 04-13 09:46 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $100.00 |
| 04-13 09:45 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.999 | $212.00 |
| 02-15 08:03 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.988 | $93.80 |