WillieBrown
0x645ec819510e01fc006518719a71bac76edfd120
- Realised P&L
- $-17.0k
- Volume
- $948.8k
- Markets traded
- 488
- Open portfolio
- $8.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded488
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.595 | 0.433 | $7.7k | −$2.9k |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · No | 0.570 | 0.425 | $1.0k | −$348.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.449US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.220Nets vs. 76ers
- +$1.9kat 0.595Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.9kat 0.260Raptors vs. 76ers
- +$1.8kat 0.678Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 04:36 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.438 | $4.38 |
| 11-02 04:36 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.437 | $407.72 |
| 10-25 05:48 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.55 | $660.00 |
| 10-22 17:04 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $980.00 |
| 10-22 17:02 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5318512714 | $372.30 |
| 10-21 03:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.709695122 | $581.95 |
| 10-12 19:48 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $411.80 |
| 10-12 19:41 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.51098 | $51.10 |
| 10-10 17:55 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5180271429 | $362.62 |
| 10-10 00:37 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5708255 | $1.1k |
| 10-09 18:17 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.59 | $708.00 |
| 10-09 18:16 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.601582105 | $1.2k |
| 10-09 18:11 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.599 | $539.10 |
| 10-09 18:11 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5999542615 | $779.94 |
| 10-07 17:41 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.584 | $566.48 |