limonad
0x645b399ad699379e4f2a3e00b38a7cf1ed4fb36c
- Realised P&L
- $-48.25
- Volume
- $77.4k
- Markets traded
- 187
- Open portfolio
- $16.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded187
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza Basquete Cearense vs. Basquete Osasco · Fortaleza Basquete Cearense | 0.530 | 0.555 | $6.49 | +$0.29 |
| Browns vs. Titans · Browns | 0.550 | 0.545 | $5.55 | −$0.05 |
| Bengals vs. Ravens · Bengals | 0.430 | 0.425 | $4.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.76at 0.001Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
- +$29.90at 0.001Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$25.41at 0.440Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
- +$21.30at 0.240Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
- +$20.40at 0.250Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 12:23 | Fortaleza Basquete Cearense vs. Basquete Osasco | BUY | 0.5299999641 | $6.20 |
| 10-20 12:22 | Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales | BUY | 0.539999964 | $6.00 |
| 10-20 12:19 | Bengals vs. Ravens | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 12:19 | Browns vs. Titans | BUY | 0.5499999656 | $5.60 |
| 10-20 12:19 | Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales | BUY | 0.5499999954 | $6.00 |
| 07-12 19:05 | NBA Summer League: Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets | BUY | 0.539999964 | $6.00 |
| 07-12 19:05 | NBA Summer League: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 19:05 | Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti | BUY | 0.5089999695 | $5.40 |
| 07-12 19:04 | Newport (Doubles): Shymanovich/Volynets vs Broadus/Collins | BUY | 0.5489999963 | $6.00 |
| 07-12 19:04 | Newport: Jacob Fearnley vs Adam Walton | BUY | 0.5 | $5.20 |
| 07-12 19:03 | Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 19:02 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.5499999633 | $6.00 |
| 06-16 14:57 | Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee | BUY | 0.4099999289 | $3.00 |
| 06-12 12:07 | Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 12:06 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | BUY | 0.5299999609 | $5.70 |