fourtrader2222
0x644ced68d9f30799de5c5afcb1022c8194919b6a
- Realised P&L
- $550.84
- Volume
- $35.8k
- Markets traded
- 2,277
- Open portfolio
- $4.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,277
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.90at 0.027Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$76.91at 0.338Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16?
- +$58.39at 0.854Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$49.75at 0.258Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
- +$44.94at 0.063Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 16:19 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 13? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.40 |
| 08-12 16:19 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 13? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 08-12 13:13 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 02:58 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.302 | $1.51 |
| 08-12 02:34 | Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-08-11? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 02:32 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.496 | $2.48 |
| 08-12 02:12 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 08-12 02:10 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 08-12 01:47 | Will Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 08-12 01:47 | Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-08-11? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 08-12 01:44 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 08-12 01:20 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 08-12 01:20 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 08-12 00:38 | Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.11 |
| 08-12 00:37 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.263 | $0.19 |