PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

fourtrader2222

0x644ced68d9f30799de5c5afcb1022c8194919b6a

Realised P&L
$550.84
Volume
$35.8k
Markets traded
2,277
Open portfolio
$4.12

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded2,277
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration73.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat? · No0.6800.605$3.02−$0.38
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.384$0.39+$0.39
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.235$0.24+$0.23
Will USFP get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? · Yes0.0050.047$0.23+$0.21
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? · Yes0.0300.026$0.13−$0.02
Will Saga Carlgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gotland? · Yes0.0310.003$0.01−$0.14
Will PPS get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? · Yes0.0290.001$0.01−$0.72
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.012$0.01+$0.00
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.011$0.01+$0.00
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.006$0.01−$0.00
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0080.003$0.00−$0.00
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0340.001$0.00−$0.17
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0340.001$0.00−$0.17
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0340.001$0.00−$0.17
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0340.001$0.00−$0.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-12 16:19Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 13?SELL0.08$0.40
08-12 16:19Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 13?SELL0.07$0.35
08-12 13:13Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?SELL0.999$5.00
08-12 02:58Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.302$1.51
08-12 02:34Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-08-11?SELL0.999$5.00
08-12 02:32Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.496$2.48
08-12 02:12Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw?BUY0.35$1.75
08-12 02:10Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.34$1.70
08-12 01:47Will Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?BUY0.7$3.50
08-12 01:47Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-08-11?BUY0.72$3.60
08-12 01:44Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.5$2.50
08-12 01:20Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.71$3.55
08-12 01:20Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.27$1.35
08-12 00:38Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?SELL0.022$0.11
08-12 00:37Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?SELL0.263$0.19