thrivinginmydelusion
0x644c1f46672fa83a0c5f76332638243abf8a2a27
- Realised P&L
- $-1.63
- Volume
- $779.02
- Markets traded
- 153
- Open portfolio
- $7.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded153
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.164 | $2.30 | +$1.30 |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.055 | $1.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.585 | $1.11 | +$0.10 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? · Yes | 0.621 | 0.630 | $1.00 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.145 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.72at 0.727Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
- +$4.18at 0.659Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
- +$4.00at 0.096Will South Carolina win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament?
- +$3.99at 0.701Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
- +$3.88at 0.673Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 12:29 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $1.18 |
| 06-03 13:35 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.811 | $2.09 |
| 06-03 13:35 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.106 | $0.18 |
| 04-29 23:57 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 16:26 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 04-21 12:05 | Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.0959999194 | $1.00 |
| 04-21 12:05 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.3869998119 | $1.00 |
| 04-21 12:04 | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 04-14 14:33 | Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.6 | $0.98 |
| 04-14 14:32 | Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.051000003 | $1.00 |
| 04-13 01:17 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves | SELL | 0.995 | $1.53 |
| 04-12 21:38 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.32 |
| 04-12 12:23 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.64 | $0.98 |
| 04-12 04:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $0.99 |
| 04-12 04:11 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |