PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

caiyuanguanjin

0x6440807a93b7acdc7a50677d57aec105329785e2

Realised P&L
$-198.36
Volume
$97.3k
Markets traded
101
Open portfolio
$74.08

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded101
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration73.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes0.8520.994$42.00+$6.00
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.024$11.73−$32.27
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.1300.055$8.87−$12.13
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · No0.9200.955$5.19+$0.19
Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election? · No0.2400.250$5.00+$0.20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.0440.029$1.30−$0.70
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0280.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00−$220.00
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee? · No0.1400.000$0.00−$7.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-20 02:32Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.0439999995$2.00
10-20 02:17Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?BUY0.92$5.00
09-23 10:08Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?BUY0.8519999824$36.00
09-23 10:07Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?SELL0.917$18.34
08-16 07:59Will Group C be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?SELL0.32$6.40
08-16 07:59Will Radiant Win More Games at Dota The International 2026?SELL0.91$9.10
08-16 07:58Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?SELL0.48$9.60
07-09 08:14Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.187999986$10.00
07-09 08:13Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.16$10.00
07-09 08:13Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0599999946$10.00
07-09 08:13Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0279999972$10.00
07-09 08:13Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.025$10.00
07-09 08:12Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0219999979$10.00
07-09 07:52Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0900596645$44.00
07-09 07:48Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.1302463997$21.00