caiyuanguanjin
0x6440807a93b7acdc7a50677d57aec105329785e2
- Realised P&L
- $-198.36
- Volume
- $97.3k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $74.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$303.58at 0.696Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?
- +$47.50at 0.500Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b on Friday?
- +$45.60at 0.810US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$43.50at 0.500Will Donald Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21?
- +$42.95at 0.193Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 02:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0439999995 | $2.00 |
| 10-20 02:17 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 09-23 10:08 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8519999824 | $36.00 |
| 09-23 10:07 | Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | SELL | 0.917 | $18.34 |
| 08-16 07:59 | Will Group C be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 08-16 07:59 | Will Radiant Win More Games at Dota The International 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 08-16 07:58 | Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 07-09 08:14 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.187999986 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 08:13 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 08:13 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 08:13 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0279999972 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 08:13 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 08:12 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0219999979 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 07:52 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0900596645 | $44.00 |
| 07-09 07:48 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.1302463997 | $21.00 |