Renaud83
0x63bcd17dd2e9b386cf917ed801539ae0842d5a93
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $38.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $179.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.050 | $179.07 | +$59.69 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$275.50 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$529.20 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$108.50 |
| Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.42 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$463.00 |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$202.50 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$405.00at 0.190Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$155.25at 0.038Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$105.32at 0.074Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$88.80at 0.630Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
- +$45.35at 0.189Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 00:33 | Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.033 | $119.38 |
| 06-28 19:14 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $202.50 |
| 06-23 22:19 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.147 | $529.20 |
| 04-22 15:15 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0444719945 | $100.00 |
| 04-16 17:34 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.15 | $75.00 |
| 04-15 23:14 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $180.00 |
| 04-15 23:13 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $108.00 |
| 04-14 15:43 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.19 | $142.22 |
| 04-13 15:01 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0379999993 | $50.00 |
| 04-13 15:00 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0379999986 | $25.00 |
| 04-13 14:54 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.038 | $28.50 |
| 04-13 01:31 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.23 | $115.00 |
| 04-12 02:07 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 04-11 14:04 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $54.00 |
| 04-07 13:11 | Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.63 | $151.20 |