AvalancheFDN
0x6396a76ba47f24920d6d4c00350d37cc96a67183
- Realised P&L
- $-886.71
- Volume
- $24.3k
- Markets traded
- 192
- Open portfolio
- $25.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded192
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.275 | $24.68 | +$6.88 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.015 | $1.20 | −$14.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$101.19at 0.322Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?
- +$87.99at 0.120Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?
- +$84.15at 0.065Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 21?
- +$82.00at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?
- +$73.30at 0.635Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 10:21 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1983428062 | $17.80 |
| 08-03 08:23 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 08-03 05:58 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.0370378551 | $6.04 |
| 08-03 05:43 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2 | $13.00 |
| 08-03 05:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.5858064516 | $18.16 |
| 08-03 05:13 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.38 | $4.94 |
| 08-03 05:03 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.3664801126 | $10.41 |
| 08-03 04:57 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.45 | $0.16 |
| 08-03 04:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 08-03 04:50 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 04:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.5893333333 | $70.72 |
| 08-03 03:26 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.35 | $11.40 |
| 08-03 01:50 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.211 | $21.10 |
| 08-03 01:10 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 08-03 01:06 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.4536 | $45.36 |