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0x636feb314ceb60c66958dc82aab888bf1a915f7b
- Realised P&L
- $-110.96
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $12.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.281 | 0.365 | $12.93 | +$2.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.79at 0.840Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
- +$20.00at 0.884Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
- +$19.77at 0.870Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
- +$10.25at 0.902US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
- +$8.00at 0.920Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 01:54 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $10.14 |
| 09-08 09:22 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $6.90 |
| 07-21 09:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $4.92 |
| 07-02 16:45 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 06-30 16:46 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.8879977712 | $179.29 |
| 06-18 08:02 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | BUY | 0.88 | $152.05 |
| 06-06 19:35 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.983 | $13.74 |
| 06-03 14:56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY | 0.968 | $47.38 |
| 06-03 14:56 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $47.39 |
| 06-03 05:14 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $47.90 |
| 05-24 06:08 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8397878036 | $119.48 |
| 05-24 06:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $44.95 |
| 05-24 06:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | SELL | 0.996 | $74.54 |
| 05-07 15:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | BUY | 0.983 | $73.57 |
| 04-11 11:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9689999999 | $44.22 |