0x6365504b6b82bDbf1bF4f47b6EE860f971545ef2-1770420769711
0x6365504b6b82bdbf1bf4f47b6ee860f971545ef2
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $31.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $4.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.130 | $4.41 | −$1.70 |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$391.62at 0.628Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$168.30at 0.062Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$145.95at 0.692Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$44.01at 0.730Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$0.81at 0.307Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 15:51 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1799999971 | $6.11 |
| 10-13 15:51 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.176 | $6.53 |
| 09-22 16:15 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1489999998 | $5.53 |
| 05-24 09:15 | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.3361746313 | $1.0k |
| 05-19 20:49 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.6189212336 | $652.19 |
| 05-19 20:44 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.33 | $116.36 |
| 05-19 20:44 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | SELL | 0.3247283775 | $562.73 |
| 05-17 15:00 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.3612226195 | $625.97 |
| 05-17 15:00 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0871739673 | $667.16 |
| 04-13 09:42 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0619999999 | $474.50 |
| 04-07 20:44 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6923821106 | $328.50 |
| 04-07 20:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.34 | $158.14 |
| 04-07 20:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.34 | $170.00 |
| 03-10 08:32 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.309999999 | $158.80 |
| 03-10 08:29 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.6337982757 | $158.79 |