0x635dd626c85a8ff5862d2838a64a29eb265ea39f
0x635dd626c85a8ff5862d2838a64a29eb265ea39f
- Realised P&L
- $-17.67
- Volume
- $91.30
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $0.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.055 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.85at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.389Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.44at 0.530Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.09at 0.642Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.45at 0.780Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 11:52 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:52 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 02:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:45 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.2829999309 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 10:43 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 01:52 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |
| 07-31 20:57 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 12:56 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-30 20:38 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 13:24 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-29 03:44 | Will "Europe" or "European" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-28 06:29 | Will Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.46 | $1.61 |
| 07-27 19:46 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-27 01:36 | Will Trump say "Steel" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |