Test194719481
0x635971ff7f0e423379215952f1a2bf8c6f56b453
- Realised P&L
- $-308.16
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $99.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.460 | 0.305 | $39.78 | −$20.22 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.077 | $38.50 | −$61.50 |
| Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.070 | $21.00 | −$39.00 |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.39at 0.155Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?
- +$13.58at 0.447Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
- +$10.08at 0.625Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
- +$5.97at 0.770US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$-9.58at 0.286Will Trump shake hands with Keir Starmer at the World Economic Forum?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-04 07:26 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 21:09 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $29.97 |
| 02-21 12:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.7255667676 | $9.80 |
| 02-20 14:16 | Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 02-20 14:16 | Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 02-07 11:13 | Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $60.00 |
| 02-06 22:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.459999998 | $60.00 |
| 02-06 11:59 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5980861244 | $50.00 |
| 02-03 20:00 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 01-29 19:58 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? | SELL | 0.7504253464 | $33.57 |
| 01-26 18:42 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? | BUY | 0.4469999907 | $20.00 |
| 01-25 18:38 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 01-25 18:37 | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $20.00 |
| 01-24 13:12 | Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? | BUY | 0.0958772771 | $20.00 |
| 01-23 07:18 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | BUY | 0.3180316899 | $15.00 |