big38gonhawkem
0x634bf6031675ce274a0f7dcd88ef91111e9ab425
- Realised P&L
- $-107.33
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $825.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.312 | 0.544 | $571.73 | +$243.62 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.649 | 0.615 | $129.15 | −$7.15 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.645 | $64.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes | 0.606 | 0.550 | $60.50 | −$6.20 |
| Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · No | 0.324 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$32.23 |
| Will Trump say "Drug" during Fox interview on Wednesday? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
| Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? · No | 0.746 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.50at 0.850Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$55.00at 0.450Will Trump say "Iran" in Corpus Christi on Friday?
- +$28.00at 0.710Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$24.33at 0.617Will "Skin" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final?
- +$14.85at 0.505Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:20 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.3289011905 | $27.63 |
| 10-16 18:12 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.3 | $4.66 |
| 10-16 17:29 | Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 10-09 22:27 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-09 22:26 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $17.19 |
| 10-04 18:03 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7119999906 | $17.00 |
| 10-04 18:00 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $130.00 |
| 10-04 17:57 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $62.00 |
| 09-23 13:16 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5896717 | $235.87 |
| 06-03 19:39 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1419050769 | $92.24 |
| 06-02 18:00 | Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.746 | $37.30 |
| 04-15 03:09 | Will Trump say "Drug" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 04-06 14:50 | Will Trump say "Movie star" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.4 | $6.00 |
| 03-15 01:41 | Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.505 | $15.15 |
| 03-15 01:39 | Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.532 | $13.30 |