palyktrader
0x628ec37241c4b5d7dc8eb5ab9eb90d7689c7c53b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $27.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $592.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Yes | 0.362 | 0.185 | $592.00 | −$566.99 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.745 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$117.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$414.09at 0.700Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$352.00at 0.804US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$56.75at 0.954US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
- +$33.57at 0.600Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 11?
- +$15.70at 0.780Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 14:57 | Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.83 | $156.94 |
| 06-01 12:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.2k |
| 04-03 14:21 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.1899999989 | $117.24 |
| 02-09 10:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? | BUY | 0.4299999957 | $39.00 |
| 12-30 08:04 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.991 | $1.4k |