0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985
0x62764005c3f58450d21da9984f6eab56cf3c2dd9
- Realised P&L
- $-200.0k
- Volume
- $10.16M
- Markets traded
- 332
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded332
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.9kat 0.662Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$23.1kat 0.906US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$14.6kat 0.856Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
- +$12.9kat 0.686Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
- +$12.1kat 0.811Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 23:55 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $8.9k |
| 03-23 21:46 | Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.13 |
| 03-21 23:39 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1216991004 | $55.73 |
| 03-06 08:31 | Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $172.40 |
| 03-06 08:30 | Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9725520116 | $537.87 |
| 03-06 08:28 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.020316754 | $260.28 |
| 03-02 04:34 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | SELL | 0.959 | $296.41 |
| 03-01 01:40 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.004 | $480.58 |
| 02-28 00:49 | Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.925 | $3.01 |
| 02-22 03:26 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | BUY | 0.915 | $594.75 |
| 02-21 23:06 | US strike on Cuba by March 31? | SELL | 0.96 | $512.37 |
| 02-21 05:08 | Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.96 | $14.53 |
| 02-19 23:12 | Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? | BUY | 0.999 | $705.29 |
| 02-19 23:11 | Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? | BUY | 0.9972099332 | $2.4k |
| 02-19 23:10 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $0.23 |