0x6269c8a85fc4000165b7afcc511a24e22e7e98bd
0x6269c8a85fc4000165b7afcc511a24e22e7e98bd
- Realised P&L
- $12.10
- Volume
- $254.75
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $4.60
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.981 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.595 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.545 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.195 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.160 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.135 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.015 | $0.02 | −$0.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$3.32at 0.237Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.258Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:00 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 17:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:50 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:34 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:26 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 07:03 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:00 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 14:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:48 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:47 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:27 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:56 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:28 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:21 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |