0x620671e28509f8ab30e68c1969dea9d0e84a607a
0x620671e28509f8ab30e68c1969dea9d0e84a607a
- Realised P&L
- $-18.43
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $130.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.936 | 0.931 | $76.08 | −$0.40 |
| Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.945 | 0.961 | $54.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.96at 0.819Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
- +$14.83at 0.754Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?
- +$9.65at 0.879Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$8.62at 0.876Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
- +$6.47at 0.626Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:02 | Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9469999998 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 15:16 | Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9569999985 | $14.00 |
| 11-01 13:57 | Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9440559417 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 13:56 | Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9389999974 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 09:50 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.19 |
| 11-01 07:53 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 06:29 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.8811881031 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 05:35 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 05:23 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-31 06:57 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.058 | $0.88 |
| 10-31 06:54 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.567 | $5.84 |
| 10-31 06:53 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.1322286598 | $2.00 |
| 10-31 06:23 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 06:15 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 05:55 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.9584249444 | $50.00 |