0x62017f7F782903190cc77B8759FeC853381A281D-1757633541792
0x62017f7f782903190cc77b8759fec853381a281d
- Realised P&L
- $-35.50
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $24.38
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? · Yes | 0.693 | 0.415 | $18.94 | −$12.70 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green? · Yes | 0.324 | 0.122 | $4.14 | −$6.86 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.034 | $0.99 | −$1.08 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.006 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Christopher Luxon out by September 30? · Yes | 0.414 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.40at 0.242Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
- +$0.83at 0.180Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
- +$0.72at 0.210US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$0.19at 0.280Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$0.13at 0.150Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 09:45 | Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.0389999995 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 04:29 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour? | BUY | 0.0210543525 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 04:26 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999694 | $2.06 |
| 08-25 02:12 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green? | BUY | 0.3239999828 | $11.00 |
| 08-11 20:38 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.4138595353 | $15.65 |
| 05-21 20:36 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.4399999844 | $5.64 |
| 05-21 20:35 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $4.19 |
| 05-21 20:34 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.96 |
| 04-30 04:15 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.792016799 | $26.00 |
| 04-29 23:49 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.2799999715 | $5.10 |
| 04-29 23:48 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.76 |
| 04-07 22:22 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999702 | $4.00 |
| 04-01 19:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.67 |
| 04-01 19:05 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.56 | $4.83 |
| 03-25 00:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $12.27 |