xel
0x61fd34d039a62b14ce76df008080434f8c608ae6
- Realised P&L
- $-8.5k
- Volume
- $219.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $705.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.070 | $705.00 | +$405.10 |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$355.00 |
| Texans vs. Patriots · Texans | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In · Liquid | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$147.00 |
| Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? · No | 0.271 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.2k |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$333.00 |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.740Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
- +$388.04at 0.800Trudeau resigns by Friday?
- +$357.31at 0.392Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$243.10at 0.730Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31?
- +$195.00at 0.350Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 00:05 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.4199999997 | $333.00 |
| 04-30 07:35 | Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.03 | $227.86 |
| 04-01 23:09 | Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.35 | $105.00 |
| 01-29 19:23 | Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In | BUY | 0.4 | $147.00 |
| 01-28 09:45 | Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31? | BUY | 0.7299958906 | $657.27 |
| 01-18 21:52 | Texans vs. Patriots | BUY | 0.14 | $140.00 |
| 01-06 08:45 | Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.071 | $200.82 |
| 01-06 08:44 | Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.0354405447 | $200.00 |
| 01-17 07:35 | Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? | BUY | 0.243425088 | $1.5k |
| 01-08 10:33 | Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? | BUY | 0.2486127445 | $1.1k |
| 01-02 20:08 | Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? | BUY | 0.3099999999 | $2.2k |
| 12-21 11:50 | Will there be a US Government shutdown? | BUY | 0.0430866743 | $403.19 |
| 12-21 04:30 | Will there be a US Government shutdown? | SELL | 0.0324938907 | $403.19 |
| 12-21 04:22 | Will there be a US Government shutdown? | BUY | 0.1483750527 | $1.3k |
| 12-21 04:20 | Will there be a US Government shutdown? | BUY | 0.1089999998 | $400.00 |