arbadg
0x61ca4f40bc9ad780d4ef0d04e0fea97e7584a1b4
- Realised P&L
- $-6.5k
- Volume
- $1.20M
- Markets traded
- 4,161
- Open portfolio
- $90.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,161
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.031Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$411.77at 0.459Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$371.94at 0.443Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$283.54at 0.123Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
- +$231.88at 0.026Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:01 | Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs | BUY | 0.5699999974 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 15:21 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.769999995 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 15:16 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.68 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 15:11 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.6199999913 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 14:31 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.75 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 14:26 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.4099999926 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 14:06 | Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.5422358519 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 13:22 | Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs | BUY | 0.5 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 12:51 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.5499999903 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 11:41 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.51 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 10:56 | Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BBL - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.72 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 10:46 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.7021838272 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 09:46 | LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B | BUY | 0.85 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 09:41 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.5899999896 | $19.89 |
| 09-22 08:41 | Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.3725086238 | $19.89 |