DrunkSanta
0x618695c2a277628ae2b4d1b15af9edb018406816
- Realised P&L
- $-463.85
- Volume
- $58.6k
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $16.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.125 | $16.41 | −$4.59 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.557 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.73 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.10 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.83 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$277.32at 0.236Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$96.57at 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$42.21at 0.260Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
- +$29.01at 0.527Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
- +$18.71at 0.870Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 10:41 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $21.00 |
| 09-13 10:41 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $20.67 |
| 08-28 02:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999975 | $31.00 |
| 07-15 07:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1949999937 | $19.10 |
| 07-14 18:54 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5575000321 | $9.73 |
| 07-14 11:17 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.58 | $48.17 |
| 07-14 10:59 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.5899999983 | $49.00 |
| 06-15 10:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $34.84 |
| 06-15 08:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999948 | $40.00 |
| 06-15 08:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0493046564 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 14:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $42.42 |
| 06-13 14:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.022 | $8.80 |
| 06-12 09:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999967 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 18:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 09:46 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1089999948 | $17.89 |