0x614919F1Cd2e20955f84e18f320e33876F848d2c-1772310465585
0x614919f1cd2e20955f84e18f320e33876f848d2c
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $112.1k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow? · Yes | 0.821 | 0.990 | $4.8k | +$826.29 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-07 House seat? · Yes | 0.812 | 0.940 | $515.02 | +$70.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.680Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$898.94at 0.833US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$549.65at 0.786Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$454.95at 0.852Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
- +$236.17at 0.928Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 12:44 | Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow? | BUY | 0.8205067093 | $4.0k |
| 09-09 13:20 | Will Keith Hoffmann be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee? | SELL | 0.5582029102 | $235.54 |
| 09-09 13:20 | Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? | SELL | 0.7776028814 | $545.14 |
| 09-04 16:32 | Will Keith Hoffmann be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.7322856429 | $309.00 |
| 09-04 16:32 | Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? | BUY | 0.8472973495 | $594.00 |
| 09-04 16:32 | Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.75 | $636.00 |
| 09-04 14:25 | Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.8199999999 | $636.00 |
| 08-31 06:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9567871637 | $4.9k |
| 08-28 15:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.47 | $397.18 |
| 08-24 14:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.6529999992 | $250.00 |
| 08-21 10:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7470175221 | $250.00 |
| 08-20 19:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.5864710842 | $100.00 |
| 08-20 19:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7099999998 | $600.00 |
| 08-06 22:36 | Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.941 | $600.00 |
| 08-06 19:12 | Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? | BUY | 0.959721607 | $600.00 |