Arpi
0x61471d5a98c8a4bc2e4fb28e2664b16b36341f72
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $87.5k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $76.41
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.053 | $76.41 | −$43.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.763Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
- +$1.1kat 0.710Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.0kat 0.630Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$832.21at 0.576Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$219.27at 0.860Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 14:14 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0835210141 | $50.00 |
| 08-29 13:36 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0843836079 | $70.00 |
| 06-01 10:36 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | SELL | 0.9645738 | $578.74 |
| 05-16 11:15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.71 | $142.00 |
| 05-16 11:14 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.71 | $426.00 |
| 05-16 11:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.7 | $1.0k |
| 05-16 06:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.7k |
| 05-16 06:49 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $3.7k |
| 04-18 19:24 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.7k |
| 04-12 19:12 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.1k |
| 04-12 19:12 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.978 | $1.0k |
| 04-12 19:12 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $2.4k |
| 03-09 22:42 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.6100901418 | $330.97 |
| 03-09 22:42 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.6104990792 | $672.42 |
| 02-09 07:45 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.5599999999 | $920.60 |