Fiskantes
0x612a7b083170a5e0568839cd179e0c2a0524fee9
- Realised P&L
- $-7.0k
- Volume
- $649.8k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.2kat 0.367US military action against Iran before July?
- +$8.2kat 0.546Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.9kat 0.880Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$1.2kat 0.570Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$671.54at 0.749Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-14 19:46 | US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $132.51 |
| 01-14 19:46 | US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $132.51 |
| 01-14 19:46 | US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $169.05 |
| 01-14 19:45 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.6k |
| 01-14 19:44 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $1.6k |
| 01-14 19:44 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.5054649231 | $1.3k |
| 01-14 19:42 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $10.64 |
| 01-14 19:42 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $42.00 |
| 01-14 19:41 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 01-14 19:41 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $32.39 |
| 01-14 19:40 | US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.2k |
| 01-14 19:40 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $270.62 |
| 01-14 13:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.299 | $128.09 |
| 01-14 13:28 | Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2899447514 | $262.40 |
| 01-14 13:27 | Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.09 | $243.00 |