Varil
0x611f56fb8b2852cd7865b6f1ff645ed8291dec74
- Realised P&L
- $673.47
- Volume
- $1.87M
- Markets traded
- 2,158
- Open portfolio
- $495.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,158
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration2.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$399.21at 0.550Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$346.40at 0.902Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?
- +$288.81at 0.851Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on January 31?
- +$242.10at 0.976Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$162.21at 0.896Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 15:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.02 |
| 09-20 15:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 15:06 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 15:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 15:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 22°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 15:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 21°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 14:55 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 14:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 14:04 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 13:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 13:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 13:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 12:56 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 12:56 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 12:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |