nope3050
0x6114ab1b41a31643998b1cfe021ec6562a48cff0
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $519.0k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $83.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.739Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open?
- +$1.2kat 0.471Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
- +$869.77at 0.669Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
- +$621.00at 0.854US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$580.00at 0.337US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 05:54 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.84 | $147.97 |
| 10-10 15:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $26.10 |
| 10-10 13:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $8.70 |
| 10-10 11:19 | Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.973 | $58.69 |
| 10-10 08:22 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-10 08:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.3601118641 | $356.04 |
| 10-10 07:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $175.00 |
| 10-09 09:35 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.7633333333 | $80.15 |
| 10-09 08:57 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.8 | $312.80 |
| 10-09 05:20 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.73 | $72.99 |
| 10-08 13:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |
| 10-08 13:35 | Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.975 | $32.66 |
| 10-08 13:18 | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.8202147231 | $320.11 |
| 10-08 13:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $2.1k |
| 10-08 09:35 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31? | SELL | 0.8902816 | $1.8k |