vulden
0x6102ad98aa7c373cf7d2e20fd17a4812ab6c702c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $23.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $426.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.045 | $425.44 | −$708.46 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.035 | $1.08 | −$2.92 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.80 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.90 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$227.38 |
| Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Jaqueline Cristian · Cristian | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.58at 0.660Brisbane International: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Pegula
- +$0.02at 0.980Brisbane International: Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa
- +$-11.30at 0.230US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$-101.78at 0.132Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$-159.64at 0.279Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 23:43 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.017 | $3.40 |
| 07-03 23:41 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.017 | $1.70 |
| 07-03 23:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $174.90 |
| 07-03 23:36 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $120.90 |
| 04-01 16:35 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0459081824 | $35.00 |
| 04-01 16:34 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.1 | $15.00 |
| 04-01 16:34 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $20.00 |
| 03-26 07:15 | Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? | BUY | 0.129999975 | $4.00 |
| 03-23 09:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1366305489 | $153.59 |
| 03-23 09:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $4.00 |
| 02-05 09:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.81 |
| 02-05 09:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $120.00 |
| 01-30 06:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $13.23 |
| 01-30 06:26 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $8.70 |
| 01-23 07:13 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999931 | $20.00 |