Run4ik
0x60eb1d633381fdcb1065dee4201a0bb9299b4a56
- Realised P&L
- $-355.55
- Volume
- $61.0k
- Markets traded
- 336
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded336
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.996 | $1.8k | +$30.73 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.979 | $596.88 | +$41.88 |
| Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.992 | $109.06 | +$1.26 |
| Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.205 | $4.10 | −$1.30 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.560 | $2.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31? · No | 0.869 | 0.941 | $1.45 | +$0.11 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.14at 0.956Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$78.00at 0.400Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
- +$68.33at 0.981Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$52.65at 0.791Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?
- +$49.60at 0.834Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 11:30 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.738 | $32.47 |
| 10-18 16:23 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $9.91 |
| 10-18 12:41 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $9.91 |
| 10-17 21:29 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.4643660322 | $12.69 |
| 07-02 13:23 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $564.71 |
| 06-24 08:12 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $68.88 |
| 05-08 09:27 | Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $8.37 |
| 05-07 17:44 | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 05-07 17:43 | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.96 |
| 05-06 19:20 | Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.115 | $2.42 |
| 05-06 19:20 | Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $22.72 |
| 05-06 17:42 | Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? | SELL | 0.02 | $4.83 |
| 05-06 17:42 | Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.54 |
| 05-06 17:39 | Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 17:39 | Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |