banana333
0x60a60c2d03c39b6b726b3ef3f30d0c1dd258aac8
- Realised P&L
- $-223.25
- Volume
- $257.1k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.425 | $595.00 | −$105.00 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.905 | 0.958 | $298.74 | +$16.36 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.728 | 0.757 | $233.06 | +$8.97 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 · No | 0.770 | 0.805 | $40.25 | +$1.75 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.994 | $29.80 | +$0.89 |
| Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.055 | $22.11 | −$39.16 |
| Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.090 | $18.00 | −$11.00 |
| Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.070 | $10.50 | −$14.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.97at 0.890US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$162.44at 0.869Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$147.00at 0.755US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$144.09at 0.003Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$24.00at 0.760Lakers vs. Wizards
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 11:34 | Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $5.40 |
| 09-15 09:40 | Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? | SELL | 0.15 | $16.50 |
| 09-15 09:04 | Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $24.00 |
| 09-15 09:03 | Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 09-15 09:02 | Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-22 02:40 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $700.00 |
| 08-22 02:39 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.983 | $39.32 |
| 08-22 02:38 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7278539968 | $224.08 |
| 07-22 16:52 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $117.61 |
| 07-22 16:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.06 | $294.12 |
| 07-22 11:24 | Will Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France? | SELL | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 07-22 10:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 07-22 10:03 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 07-22 09:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 07-22 08:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.17 |