HarpoonSignals
0x6086b18f3f8d4f4579a7627d97ea1a4984e8a5f9
- Realised P&L
- $4.3k
- Volume
- $348.1k
- Markets traded
- 4,624
- Open portfolio
- $454.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded4,624
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.997 | 0.998 | $100.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Grüne win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $100.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will AfD win 20-22 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.997 | 0.996 | $99.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will "Resident Evil" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.997 | 0.980 | $98.25 | −$1.75 |
| Will "The Weight" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.966 | $56.00 | −$1.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.369MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$654.62at 0.2750 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$500.50at 0.559Will Olivia McMillan / Chloe Igleski advance to the Round of 16 in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open?
- +$100.79at 0.584Will "Peace" be in the headlines this week?
- +$89.59at 0.532Will Trump post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on Truth Social this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 14:22 | Will AfD win 20-22 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:21 | Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:09 | Will Grüne win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.998 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:01 | Will "The Weight" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.999 | $57.91 |
| 09-21 14:00 | Will "Resident Evil" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.9969355979 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Hell" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.46 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Power" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.9763720834 | $94.57 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Security" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.7288399636 | $48.00 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Leprechaun" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.8969995105 | $36.65 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Hell" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.46 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Worm" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.99 | $30.55 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "God" 5+ times during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.9752119619 | $59.35 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "President" 10+ times during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.99 | $20.54 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "White House" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.9763720834 | $94.57 |
| 09-21 03:31 | Will anyone say "Monster" during President Curtis E9 S1? | BUY | 0.998 | $46.40 |