HarpoonSignals
0x6086b18f3f8d4f4579a7627d97ea1a4984e8a5f9
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $268.1k
- Markets traded
- 3,953
- Open portfolio
- $844.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded3,953
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $301.02 | +$1.02 |
| Will 220-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · No | 0.998 | 0.987 | $296.53 | −$3.47 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.986 | $209.49 | +$3.29 |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · No | 0.990 | 0.988 | $23.91 | −$0.05 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for New York City FC (NYCFC) next? · No | 0.989 | 0.895 | $13.34 | −$1.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.359MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$654.62at 0.2750 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$78.89at 0.867Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20?
- +$58.21at 0.297Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 24?
- +$56.81at 0.994Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 19:01 | Will no Lemonade Stand episode air? | BUY | 0.9988332364 | $257.73 |
| 08-05 05:55 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.97 | $206.19 |
| 08-04 20:27 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.996669538 | $904.80 |
| 08-04 17:10 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | BUY | 0.9930891286 | $279.89 |
| 08-04 17:08 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.8735105916 | $954.62 |
| 08-04 17:08 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | SELL | 0.0340761789 | $134.41 |
| 08-04 15:20 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.0760545292 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.2745114578 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9979731545 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9769662947 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:20 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $300.00 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | BUY | 0.9812182857 | $85.86 |
| 08-04 15:19 | Will there be between 25 and 27 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $226.76 |