cipher316
0x6080174f710299900f9d5689ec12ef7a1100a02a
- Realised P&L
- $-35.80
- Volume
- $567.48
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $6.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.065 | $2.55 | −$2.95 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.026 | $2.08 | −$2.80 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.044 | $1.75 | −$3.36 |
| Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.029 | $0.54 | −$0.96 |
| Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.59 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.83at 0.750US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$0.44at 0.900Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
- +$0.34at 0.749Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$-1.00at 0.290Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
- +$-2.00at 0.332Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-01 14:13 | Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.50 |
| 03-31 15:22 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $5.50 |
| 03-31 12:01 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.50 |
| 03-31 08:06 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 03-31 08:04 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.11 |
| 03-31 08:03 | Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0334160727 | $4.59 |
| 03-30 13:21 | Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.099 | $5.45 |
| 03-30 12:57 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.0620957108 | $4.88 |
| 03-30 11:27 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? | BUY | 0.0349636364 | $4.81 |
| 03-28 17:32 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.128 | $1.00 |
| 03-28 12:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 03-28 12:14 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.7489998959 | $1.00 |
| 03-28 11:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $3.98 |
| 03-28 11:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $0.98 |
| 03-28 11:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $0.97 |