PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Respire

0x604a8243cac92b254f1dbbdd676f595229e714f4

Realised P&L
$79.33
Volume
$2.7k
Markets traded
400
Open portfolio
$93.40

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded400
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration4.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026? · No0.8800.992$3.72+$0.42
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? · Yes0.4090.605$2.96+$0.96
Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? · No0.8700.840$2.90−$0.10
Will PP win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election? · Yes0.5500.690$2.51+$0.51
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000? · No0.8190.965$2.36+$0.36
Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.8000.920$2.30+$0.30
Will Broad Front (FA) win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.4300.984$2.29+$1.29
Will PSOE win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.7800.857$2.20+$0.20
Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats? · Yes0.5700.690$2.18+$0.38
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-04 House election by 65%-70%? · No0.8320.902$2.17+$0.17
Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.9200.986$2.14+$0.14
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No0.7000.745$2.13+$0.13
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? · No0.4650.415$1.79−$0.21
Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election? · Yes0.6500.720$1.77+$0.17
Will PP win the most seats in Palencia in the 2026 Spanish general election? · Yes0.5100.900$1.76+$0.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 11:41Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.9$1.00
11-01 07:24Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?SELL0.981$2.40
11-01 07:03Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?BUY0.8699999913$1.00
11-01 07:03Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?BUY0.8699999913$2.00
10-31 08:03Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?BUY0.9519999695$1.00
10-31 06:57Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?BUY0.8299999087$1.00
10-31 06:11Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?BUY0.8199999836$1.00
10-31 06:10Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?BUY0.8099999352$1.00
10-30 08:13Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats?BUY0.5699999525$1.80
10-30 08:13Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?BUY0.3099999473$1.00
10-29 09:43Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?BUY0.8199994588$1.00
10-28 15:45Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?SELL0.69$1.70
10-28 13:25Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?BUY0.6799998912$1.00
10-28 13:21Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?BUY0.84$1.00
10-28 13:20Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?BUY0.2399999808$1.00