0x60424cb64d127c272f0232bbc5fa719fce39ae17
- Realised P&L
- $-2.66
- Volume
- $13.5k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $11.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.012 | $8.00 | +$6.00 |
| Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.005 | $3.33 | +$1.33 |
| Spread: Uzbekistan (-4.5) · Uzbekistan | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.35 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.85at 0.130Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$0.23at 0.173Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$0.08at 0.923Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?
- +$0.01at 0.990Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$0.00at 1.000Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 19:43 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 08-26 19:43 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.143 | $4.67 |
| 08-05 07:44 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1849999787 | $6.04 |
| 08-02 09:34 | Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.35 |
| 07-10 05:38 | Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.0029999985 | $2.00 |
| 06-24 22:41 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 21:53 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 18:26 | Spread: Uzbekistan (-4.5) | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 17:37 | Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.0029999985 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 21:37 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 20:17 | Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9889999901 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 20:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.00 |
| 05-29 09:45 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.111 | $0.96 |
| 05-15 07:04 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.218 | $1.29 |
| 05-11 13:35 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.048999954 | $1.00 |