DSR4
0x5fddfcd6d5a2749f93afe920bcd8bd16a7d97818
- Realised P&L
- $-29.06
- Volume
- $21.0k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $68.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.994 | 0.996 | $67.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.998 | $1.12 | +$0.02 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1? · No | 0.996 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.12 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.35 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.38at 0.780US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$1.94at 0.720Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.920MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$0.35at 0.953Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$0.23at 0.860Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 05:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9939999935 | $67.00 |
| 09-08 03:14 | Will XRP dip to $0.20 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $67.00 |
| 08-26 09:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9989999861 | $67.00 |
| 08-04 05:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.00 |
| 08-04 05:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 08-04 05:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9979999604 | $21.00 |
| 07-22 06:19 | Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 06:18 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.975 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 06:18 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9939999993 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 06:18 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.00 |
| 07-22 06:18 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 06:18 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9819999996 | $5.00 |
| 07-22 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.00 |
| 07-22 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-22 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |