macncheese
0x5fc59bde0449ecedd1055cceb24ee4d6ae05bfb7
- Realised P&L
- $22.66
- Volume
- $61.7k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $515.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers · Vikings | 0.530 | 0.525 | $515.09 | −$4.90 |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic · Novak Djokovic | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$296.54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET · Up | 0.579 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Texans vs. Patriots · Texans | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| DeepSeek R2 released before July? · Yes | 0.772 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$749.18 |
| Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET · Down | 0.916 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks · 49ers | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET · Up | 0.892 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$853.80at 0.597Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$537.70at 0.601India military action against Pakistan before June?
- +$520.00at 0.480Super Bowl LIX Winner
- +$322.50at 0.759RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?
- +$258.11at 0.640Will Biden finish his term?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 22:39 | Vikings vs. Buccaneers | BUY | 0.5299999997 | $520.00 |
| 09-13 21:37 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.88 | $861.97 |
| 09-04 17:29 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.84 | $822.79 |
| 05-29 17:14 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.8099999999 | $296.54 |
| 03-15 23:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $9.95 |
| 03-15 23:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 03-15 22:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 03-12 21:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $9.70 |
| 03-12 21:54 | Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | BUY | 0.9148831854 | $9.97 |
| 03-12 21:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | BUY | 0.8799999988 | $29.83 |
| 03-12 21:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $100.00 |
| 03-12 21:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9290003286 | $9.98 |
| 03-08 19:00 | T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand | SELL | 0.999 | $185.45 |
| 03-08 16:07 | T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand | BUY | 0.9777879994 | $181.52 |
| 02-10 19:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9391501611 | $1.7k |