Bilal95
0x5f57df7397a19c3594c9ecc9e11f4b6b1aa561e5
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $161.6k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $184.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.185 | $134.78 | −$1.45 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.065 | $23.30 | −$0.80 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $16.55 | −$3.44 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.019 | $9.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.99at 0.040JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$55.36at 0.839JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
- +$38.59at 0.587Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
- +$29.55at 0.633US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
- +$28.96at 0.577Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 01:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? | BUY | 0.0672240779 | $24.10 |
| 09-30 16:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October? | BUY | 0.02 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 12:44 | Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0138258362 | $11.82 |
| 09-28 20:46 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 09-28 20:38 | Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1898945028 | $90.00 |
| 09-28 20:34 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6272532998 | $109.78 |
| 09-28 15:37 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $51.50 |
| 09-28 15:36 | Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $50.81 |
| 09-28 14:26 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999974 | $52.00 |
| 09-28 14:13 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.4708952551 | $52.60 |
| 09-28 13:36 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4386571698 | $49.00 |
| 09-28 13:27 | Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $49.06 |
| 09-24 15:51 | Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.038663793 | $11.50 |
| 09-24 15:48 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0048326455 | $20.00 |
| 09-24 15:16 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |