hzdgf
0x5f50bde4280d2d9d5361978011e30f3167c8bd80
- Realised P&L
- $-165.04
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $7.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.943 | 0.947 | $2.6k | +$10.59 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.949 | 0.951 | $2.5k | +$4.58 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.843 | 0.930 | $1.1k | +$107.54 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.785 | $859.02 | +$45.49 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.633 | 0.547 | $224.63 | −$35.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.36at 0.859Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
- +$5.97at 0.950EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
- +$2.93at 0.978Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
- +$2.36at 0.051Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$0.83at 0.985Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 05:45 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.947 | $18.94 |
| 10-30 05:45 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 10-29 23:20 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.917 | $110.96 |
| 10-29 23:19 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $217.55 |
| 10-22 00:19 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $161.13 |
| 10-21 16:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8213119045 | $214.59 |
| 10-21 16:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7 | $117.70 |
| 10-21 16:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.517 | $50.74 |
| 10-21 13:03 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7676370097 | $389.83 |
| 10-21 13:01 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.87 | $435.00 |
| 10-21 13:00 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.67 | $209.38 |
| 10-21 12:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7607025227 | $90.00 |
| 05-25 03:12 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.977 | $5.86 |
| 02-09 10:28 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.987 | $5.92 |
| 01-11 13:10 | EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9462593489 | $199.40 |