0x5f4fc359460Dbe427Ae7D4F81b4a34B3678Cc2F1-1766878911831
0x5f4fc359460dbe427ae7d4f81b4a34b3678cc2f1
- Realised P&L
- $-996.32
- Volume
- $740.9k
- Markets traded
- 6,049
- Open portfolio
- $283.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,049
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.385 | $279.51 | +$156.09 |
| Will "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · No | 0.320 | 0.345 | $3.55 | +$0.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.091Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
- +$2.3kat 0.343Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.698Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.325Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
- +$867.86at 0.349Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $123.42 |
| 09-22 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $48.30 |
| 09-22 15:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $21.11 |
| 09-22 15:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 09-22 15:26 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $77.09 |
| 09-22 13:41 | Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $20.08 |
| 09-22 11:46 | Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.188 | $3.76 |
| 09-22 11:46 | Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.187 | $1.87 |
| 09-22 09:57 | Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.20 |
| 09-20 09:33 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 09:33 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $49.74 |
| 09-18 15:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.35 |
| 09-18 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $6.29 |
| 09-18 15:13 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $48.28 |
| 09-18 15:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $61.20 |