Simpsons2026
0x5f145575cb31aa906195799b371b476137f0c52a
- Realised P&L
- $-111.12
- Volume
- $48.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $885.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election? · Yes | 0.714 | 0.785 | $576.82 | +$52.24 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.379 | 0.187 | $172.70 | −$177.10 |
| Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · No | 0.813 | 0.697 | $69.70 | −$11.60 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No | 0.020 | 0.015 | $66.24 | −$17.67 |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$0.86 |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$0.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$984.58at 0.048Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
- +$156.66at 0.032Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- +$65.97at 0.400Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$39.29at 0.374Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$15.89at 0.020Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 20:23 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.3342319513 | $34.58 |
| 10-04 20:22 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.337 | $164.86 |
| 10-04 20:14 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.0402583074 | $4.28 |
| 10-04 20:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.043 | $12.90 |
| 10-04 20:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.038 | $14.17 |
| 10-04 20:10 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.0349985581 | $3.64 |
| 10-04 20:09 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.0257518037 | $42.33 |
| 10-04 04:05 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.075 | $7.50 |
| 10-04 03:53 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.077 | $4.62 |
| 10-04 03:53 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.073 | $3.65 |
| 10-04 03:52 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 10-04 03:15 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0649199198 | $44.04 |
| 10-04 03:14 | Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election? | SELL | 0.66 | $46.20 |
| 10-04 03:13 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0648950384 | $50.75 |
| 10-04 03:11 | Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election? | SELL | 0.67 | $33.57 |