0x5f078cbcc62a3d2abeb528eb9f039a29b5f92da2
0x5f078cbcc62a3d2abeb528eb9f039a29b5f92da2
- Realised P&L
- $-3.56
- Volume
- $230.33
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $5.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.705 | $1.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.840 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.245 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.520 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.375 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.295 | $0.53 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.63at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$2.76at 0.420Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:18 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 10:17 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 12:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 11:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 23:25 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:19 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 23:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 03:50 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 19:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 09:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 00:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 13:44 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 04:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |