smaug.the.fire.drake

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

✕ BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%

Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.

✓ ClearMarkets traded112

Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.

✓ ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position

Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.

✓ ClearSettled sample50 positions

Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

▲ CautionOpen concentration74.8% in top position

Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.