Alex333-833
0x5ee08de9a07e4d98a127bf1920de676342993e49
- Realised P&L
- $-16.43
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.029 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.035 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.15at 0.270Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?
- +$0.43at 0.600Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?
- +$0.25at 0.580Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?
- +$0.18at 0.769Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6?
- +$0.01at 0.957Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 20:07 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | BUY | 0.0490677134 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 19:49 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0359999663 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 19:40 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0090000001 | $1.30 |
| 07-05 19:38 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 09:33 | Doge ETF approved by July 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.19 |
| 12-18 17:58 | Will Berachain launch a token in December? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 22:03 | MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | BUY | 0.005 | $4.00 |
| 12-10 21:06 | MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | BUY | 0.004 | $4.20 |
| 12-10 18:23 | MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.80 |
| 12-05 12:22 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? | BUY | 0.025 | $3.00 |
| 12-05 12:13 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? | BUY | 0.022999978 | $1.00 |
| 12-05 12:10 | Ryan Selkis arrested in 2024? | BUY | 0.0849992647 | $0.10 |
| 12-05 12:10 | Will Kraken IPO in 2024? | BUY | 0.0209997978 | $0.10 |
| 12-05 12:05 | Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.10 |
| 12-02 21:33 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? | BUY | 0.0209997978 | $0.10 |