arbandy
0x5eb0cd907aa0b7b4df11552e817570e265ea5012
- Realised P&L
- $-151.5k
- Volume
- $15.51M
- Markets traded
- 833
- Open portfolio
- $36.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded833
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.3kat 0.965Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$17.3kat 0.204Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
- +$17.0kat 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 2?
- +$14.6kat 0.090Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20?
- +$13.7kat 0.241Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:35 | Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.7212020416 | $251.51 |
| 09-15 15:15 | Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.619 | $141.64 |
| 09-15 15:11 | Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? | BUY | 0.2849851207 | $103.43 |
| 09-15 00:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | SELL | 0.047 | $0.03 |
| 09-15 00:01 | Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $246.21 |
| 09-14 23:48 | Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6001126126 | $266.45 |
| 09-14 23:47 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.8076426659 | $531.01 |
| 09-14 23:46 | Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.8183875985 | $157.85 |
| 09-14 23:46 | Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.2494549534 | $266.25 |
| 09-12 22:41 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0742381044 | $416.36 |
| 09-12 22:25 | Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1965242302 | $328.61 |
| 09-12 22:22 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.7708688745 | $441.09 |
| 09-12 22:18 | Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1548814569 | $495.90 |
| 09-12 22:15 | SSI public model released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $179.80 |
| 09-12 22:11 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.447 | $2.23 |