arbandy
0x5eb0cd907aa0b7b4df11552e817570e265ea5012
- Realised P&L
- $-165.4k
- Volume
- $15.64M
- Markets traded
- 858
- Open portfolio
- $11.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded858
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.3kat 0.965Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$17.3kat 0.204Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
- +$17.0kat 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 2?
- +$14.6kat 0.090Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20?
- +$13.7kat 0.241Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 08:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? | SELL | 0.005 | $3.00 |
| 10-27 07:59 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | SELL | 0.007 | $17.03 |
| 10-27 07:58 | Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in October? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.66 |
| 10-27 07:58 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October? | SELL | 0.004 | $6.76 |
| 10-22 23:27 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.77 |
| 10-20 19:17 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.08 | $160.00 |
| 10-20 19:15 | No one announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.3062209588 | $363.02 |
| 10-11 18:26 | Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.2149233769 | $96.46 |
| 10-11 18:20 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October? | BUY | 0.0649756098 | $13.32 |
| 10-11 18:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? | BUY | 0.06 | $291.71 |
| 10-11 18:11 | Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in October? | BUY | 0.0325089167 | $26.94 |
| 10-11 16:17 | Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.22 | $220.00 |
| 10-02 09:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.018944206 | $8.83 |
| 10-02 09:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.0159455862 | $81.47 |
| 10-02 09:26 | No one announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.2760022588 | $1.2k |