PolMatt
0x5e9d75747028577c4a31f0d339ca92ad2c4fe88b
- Realised P&L
- $-6.2k
- Volume
- $305.1k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $13.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.674 | 0.775 | $7.2k | +$935.63 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.876 | 0.915 | $3.6k | +$152.06 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? · Yes | 0.963 | 1.000 | $755.70 | +$27.70 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.985 | $590.70 | +$26.70 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.415 | $350.75 | −$12.68 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.815 | $343.80 | −$2.11 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.945 | $155.52 | +$10.62 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? · Yes | 0.989 | 1.000 | $30.00 | +$0.33 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.560 | $3.31 | +$0.30 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.455 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.4k |
| China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen Zheng · Marie Bouzkova | 0.275 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.8kat 0.547Spread: France (-1.5)
- +$2.3kat 0.597Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?
- +$1.4kat 0.607Spread: Senegal (-1.5)
- +$1.1kat 0.824Steelers vs. Browns
- +$307.45at 0.969Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:15 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $912.14 |
| 10-05 07:41 | China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen Zheng | BUY | 0.275388885 | $106.02 |
| 10-05 00:04 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.88 | $3.1k |
| 10-04 16:54 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.92 |
| 10-04 16:54 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.43 | $3.71 |
| 10-04 16:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.43 | $202.99 |
| 10-04 16:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? | BUY | 0.989 | $24.61 |
| 10-04 16:52 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.96 | $0.96 |
| 10-04 16:52 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.43 | $151.81 |
| 10-04 16:51 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.96 | $23.01 |
| 10-04 16:15 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.963 | $22.25 |
| 10-04 15:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $519.70 |
| 10-04 15:24 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.51 | $3.01 |
| 10-04 15:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | BUY | 0.94 | $524.89 |
| 10-04 15:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.963 | $673.14 |