0x5e8f70f06e54b08679708fa64a0f5633c55dec9a
0x5e8f70f06e54b08679708fa64a0f5633c55dec9a
- Realised P&L
- $-2.41
- Volume
- $429.00
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $78.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.571 | 0.968 | $44.53 | +$18.27 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.878 | $10.54 | +$4.54 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.910 | $9.10 | +$1.30 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.965 | $7.72 | +$1.32 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.090 | $4.05 | −$6.01 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.032 | $1.50 | −$17.53 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.045 | $0.81 | −$1.43 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.019 | $0.29 | −$0.77 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.021 | $0.25 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.088Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.23at 0.930Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.180Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$-0.05at 0.250OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
- +$-0.20at 0.470U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 18:15 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 06-17 23:22 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 06-12 16:47 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.04 |
| 04-22 14:26 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.40 |
| 04-22 14:26 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 04-22 14:26 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.071 | $1.06 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.501 | $4.01 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.907 | $7.26 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.094 | $1.03 |
| 04-16 10:42 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.44 |
| 04-16 10:41 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $6.38 |
| 04-14 07:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 04-14 07:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $3.68 |
| 03-26 16:52 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.35 |