0x5e8f70f06e54b08679708fa64a0f5633c55dec9a
- Realised P&L
- $-1.85
- Volume
- $429.00
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $80.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.571 | 0.964 | $44.34 | +$18.09 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.912 | $10.95 | +$4.95 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.925 | $9.25 | +$1.45 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.958 | $7.66 | +$1.26 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.075 | $3.38 | −$6.68 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.095 | $1.71 | −$0.53 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.036 | $1.69 | −$17.34 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.075 | $0.90 | −$0.18 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.029 | $0.43 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.088Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.23at 0.930Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.180Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$-0.05at 0.250OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
- +$-0.20at 0.470U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 18:15 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 06-17 23:22 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 06-12 16:47 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.04 |
| 04-22 14:26 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.40 |
| 04-22 14:26 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 04-22 14:26 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.071 | $1.06 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.501 | $4.01 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.907 | $7.26 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.094 | $1.03 |
| 04-16 10:42 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.44 |
| 04-16 10:41 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $6.38 |
| 04-14 07:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 04-14 07:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $3.68 |
| 03-26 16:52 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.35 |