Kirill1975
0x5e89ac6c354fd460a30e81f22d80278a57aa9f91
- Realised P&L
- $93.63
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin visits US by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.926 | 0.910 | $491.42 | −$8.58 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.635 | $484.97 | −$11.46 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.957 | $103.97 | +$3.97 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.780 | $97.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.54at 0.930Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$24.48at 0.639Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
- +$14.42at 0.933Will Respublica win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
- +$4.93at 0.670Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-4.12at 0.306Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 13:13 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6499999996 | $496.43 |
| 10-03 07:15 | Putin visits US by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9258868401 | $500.00 |
| 09-24 20:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 21:01 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 20:25 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.292368125 | $49.38 |
| 09-09 16:13 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.2960116708 | $50.00 |
| 09-09 07:27 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? | BUY | 0.2063073777 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 07:25 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? | BUY | 0.2399999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 11:43 | Will Respublica win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $199.00 |
| 08-13 09:14 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9269999888 | $83.00 |
| 08-13 09:13 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.926999998 | $300.00 |
| 08-13 09:12 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9269999994 | $500.00 |
| 08-13 09:11 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9269999951 | $90.00 |
| 08-13 09:09 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9269999448 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 16:19 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |