0x5E6d4067e7F602eAEF0E840FcAcD3CAD041BA2a1-1778674501422
0x5e6d4067e7f602eaef0e840fcacd3cad041ba2a1
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $278.2k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $441.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.655 | $334.05 | +$89.25 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.315 | $107.10 | −$45.90 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) · Djokovic | 0.203 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.50 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$142.34 |
| UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) · Yan Xiaonan | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$673.44 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$152.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$518.37at 0.650Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
- +$502.73at 0.131Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$348.01at 0.323MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$218.12at 0.100Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
- +$182.08at 0.490Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 09:49 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.045 | $0.45 |
| 09-06 09:43 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.041 | $5.08 |
| 09-06 09:41 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $236.25 |
| 09-05 09:20 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $240.00 |
| 09-05 09:16 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.045 | $1.80 |
| 09-05 09:12 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $448.95 |
| 08-29 02:09 | UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.58 | $416.94 |
| 08-29 02:08 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.6102806584 | $434.89 |
| 08-29 02:04 | UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.58 | $256.50 |
| 08-28 17:03 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.31 | $20.61 |
| 08-27 16:58 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.28 | $18.62 |
| 08-09 11:04 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.147 | $189.68 |
| 08-06 20:12 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.2102679672 | $39.23 |
| 08-06 20:09 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $15.24 |
| 08-06 20:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $20.13 |