michaelcarlson
0x5e58a9606f2c98eb7ef4a529fb12fe1450373c4c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.49
- Volume
- $15.6k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $13.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.625 | $13.29 | +$2.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.48at 0.380Broncos vs. Chargers
- +$9.28at 0.670Korea Open: Yexin Ma vs Kimberly Birrell
- +$2.68at 0.920Will "Wildchild" - Alex Warren first week album sales be between 70k and 90k?
- +$2.13at 0.700Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?
- +$2.00at 0.900Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:35 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.45 |
| 01-30 16:11 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999865 | $9.45 |
| 01-30 15:22 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.95 |
| 01-30 13:19 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.62 |
| 12-30 09:25 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.997999951 | $9.86 |
| 12-30 00:31 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.9979999557 | $6.17 |
| 12-30 00:18 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.90 |
| 12-29 23:21 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $33.02 |
| 12-29 21:45 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999997 | $18.21 |
| 10-30 23:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9929999751 | $18.25 |
| 10-30 19:44 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.997 | $22.61 |
| 09-29 11:28 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $15.13 |
| 09-29 11:03 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.49 |
| 09-29 03:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.59 |
| 09-29 02:38 | Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.89 |