PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

michaelcarlson

0x5e58a9606f2c98eb7ef4a529fb12fe1450373c4c

Realised P&L
$-1.49
Volume
$15.6k
Markets traded
80
Open portfolio
$13.29

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded80
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28? · Yes0.5300.625$13.29+$2.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
01-31 13:35Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January?BUY0.999$8.45
01-30 16:11Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?BUY0.9979999865$9.45
01-30 15:22Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?BUY0.998$21.95
01-30 13:19Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January?BUY0.999$36.62
12-30 09:25US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?BUY0.997999951$9.86
12-30 00:31Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY0.9979999557$6.17
12-30 00:18Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?BUY0.998$8.90
12-29 23:21Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?BUY0.998$33.02
12-29 21:45Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?BUY0.9929999997$18.21
10-30 23:25Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?BUY0.9929999751$18.25
10-30 19:44Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?BUY0.997$22.61
09-29 11:28Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30?BUY0.9969999999$15.13
09-29 11:03Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30?BUY0.999$12.49
09-29 03:51Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?BUY0.999$19.59
09-29 02:38Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?BUY0.999$10.89